Jurassic Park - Crichton Michael - Страница 39

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But a moment later the screen printed:

Total Animals 292____________________

Species Expected Found Ver

Tyrannosaurs 2 2 4.1

Maiasaurs 21 22 3.3

Stegosaurs 4 4 3.9

Triceratops 8 8 3.1

Procompsognathids 49 65 3.9

Othnielia 16 23 3.1

Velociraptors 8 37 3.0

Apatosaurs 17 17 3.1

Hadrosaurs 11 11 3.1

Dilophosaurs 7 7 4.3

Pterosaurs 6 6 4.3

Hypsilophodontids 33 34 2.9

Euoplocepbalids 16 16 4.0

Styracosaurs 18 18 3.9

Callovosaurs 22 22 4.1

Total 238 292

The radio crackled. "Now you see the flaw in your procedures," Malcolm said. "You only tracked the expected number of dinosaurs. You were worried about losing animals, and your procedures were designed to advise you instantly if you had less than the expected number. But that wasn't the problem. The problem was, you had more than the expected number."

"Christ," Arnold said.

"There can't be more," Wu said. "We know how many we've released. There can't be more than that."

"Afraid so, Henry," Malcolm said. "They're breeding."

"No."

"Even if you don't accept Grant's eggshell, you can prove it with your own data. Take a look at the compy height graph. Arnold will put it up for you."

[picture]

"Notice anything about it?" Malcolm said.

"It's a Poisson distribution," Wu said. "Normal curve."

"But didn't you say you introduced the compys in three batches? At six-month intervals?"

" Yes…"

"Then you should get a graph with peaks for each of the three separate batches that were introduced," Malcolm said, tapping the keyboard. "Like this."

[picture]

"But you didn't get this graph," Malcolm said. "The graph you actually got is a graph of a breeding population. Your compys are breeding."

Wu shook his head. "I don't see how."

"They're breeding, and so are the othnielia, the maiasaurs, the hypsys-and the velociraptors."

"Christ," Muldoon said. "There are raptors free in the park."

"Well, it's not that bad," Hammond said, looking at the screen. "We have increases in just three categories-well, five categories. Very small increases in two of them…"

"What are you talking about?" Wu said, loudly. "Don't you know what this means?"

"Of course I know what this means, Henry," Hammond said. "It means you screwed up."

"Absolutely not."

"You've got breeding dinosaurs out there, Henry.'

"But they're all female," Wu said. "It's impossible. There must be a mistake. And look at the numbers. A small increase in the big animals, the maiasaurs and the hypsys. And big increases in the number of small animals. It just doesn't make sense. It must be a mistake."

The radio clicked. "Actually not," Grant said. "I think these numbers confirm that breeding is taking place. In seven different sites around the island."

The sky was growing darker. Thunder rumbled in the distance. Grant and the others leaned in the doors of the Jeep, staring at the screen on the dashboard. "Breeding sites?" Wu said, over the radio.

"Nests," Grant said. "Assuming the average clutch is eight to twelve hatching eggs, these data would indicate the compys have two nests. The raptors have two nests. The othys have one nest. And the hypsys and the maias have one nest each."

"Where are these nests?"

"We'll have to find them," Grant said. "Dinosaurs build their nests in secluded places."

"But why are there so few big animals?" Wu said. "If there is a maia nest of eight to twelve eggs, there should be eight to twelve new maias. Not just one."

"That's right," Grant said. "Except that the raptors and the compys that are loose in the park are probably eating the eggs of the bigger animals and perhaps eating the newly hatched young, as well."

"But we've never seen that," Arnold said, over the radio.

"Raptors are nocturnal," he said. "Is anyone watching the park at night?"

There was a long silence.

"I didn't think so," Grant said.

"It still doesn't make sense," Wu said. "You can't support fifty additional animals on a couple of nests of eggs."

"No," Grant said. "I assume they are eating something else as well. Perhaps small rodents. Mice and rats?"

There was another silence.

"Let me guess," Grant said. "When you first came to the island, you had a problem with rats. But as time passed, the problem faded away."

"Yes. That's true… "

"And you never thought to investigate why."

"Well, we just assumed…" Arnold said.

"Look," Wu said, "the fact remains, all the animals are female. They can't breed."

Grant had been thinking about that. He had recently learned of an intriguing West German study that he suspected held the answer. "When you made your dinosaur DNA," Grant said, "you were working with fragmentary pieces, is that right?"

"Yes," Wu said.

"In order to make a complete strand, we're you ever required to include DNA fragments from other species?"

"Occasionally, yes," Wu said. "It's the only way to accomplish the job. Sometimes we included avian DNA, from a variety of birds, and sometimes reptilian DNA."

"Any amphibian DNA? Specifically, frog DNA?"

"Possibly. I'd have to check."

"Check," Grant said. "I think you'll find that holds the answer."

Malcolm said, "Frog DNA? Why frog DNA?"

Gennaro said impatiently, "Listen, this is all very intriguing, but we're forgetting the main question: have any animals gotten off the island?"

Grant said, "We can't tell from these data."

"Then how are we going to find out?"

"There's only one way I know," Grant said. "We'll have to find the individual dinosaur nests, inspect them, and count the remaining egg fragments. From that we may be able to determine how many animals were originally hatched. And we can begin to assess whether any are missing."

Malcolm said, "Even so, you won't know if the missing animals are killed, or dead from natural causes, or whether they have left the island."

"No," Grant said, "but it's a start. And I think we can get more information from an intensive look at the population graphs."

"How are we going to find these nests?"

"Actually," Grant said, "I think the computer will be able to help us with that."

"Can we go back now?" Lex said. "I'm hungry."

"Yes, let's go," Grant said, smiling at her. "You've been very patient."

"You'll be able to eat in about twenty minutes," Ed Regis said, starting toward the two Land Cruisers.

"I'll stay for a while," Ellie said, "and get photos of the stego with Dr. Harding's camera. Those vesicles in the mouth will have cleared up by tomorrow."

"I want to get back," Grant said. "I'll go with the kids."

"I will, too," Malcolm said.

"I think I'll stay," Gennaro said, "and go back with Harding in his Jeep, with Dr. Sattler."

"Fine, let's go."

They started walking. Malcolm said, "Why exactly is our lawyer staying?"

Grant shrugged. "I think it might have something to do with Dr. Sattler."

"Really? The shorts, you think?"

"It's happened before," Grant said.

When they came to the Land Cruisers, Tim said, "I want to ride in the front one this time, with Dr. Grant."

Malcolm said, "Unfortunately, Dr. Grant and I need to talk."

"I'll just sit and listen. I won't say anything," Tim said.

"It's a private conversation," Malcolm said.

"Tell you what, Tim," Ed Regis said. "Let them sit in the rear car by themselves. We'll sit in the front car, and you can use the night-vision goggles. Have you ever used night-vision goggles, Tim? They're goggles with very sensitive CCDs that allow you to see in the dark."

"Neat," he said, and moved toward the first car.

"Hey!" Lex said. "I want to use it, too."

"No," Tim said.

"No fair! No fair! You get to do everything, Timmy!"

Ed Regis watched them go and said to Grant, "I can see what the ride back is going to be like."

Grant and Malcolm climbed into the second car. A few raindrops spattered the windshield. "Let's get going," Ed Regis said. "I'm about ready for dinner. And I could do with a nice banana daiquiri. What do you say, folks? Daiquiri sound good?" He pounded the metal panel of the car. "See you back at camp" he said, and he started running toward the first car, and climbed aboard.

A red light on the dashboard blinked. With a soft electric whirr, the Land Cruisers started off.

Driving back in the fading light, Malcolm seemed oddly subdued. Grant said, "You must feel vindicated. About your theory."

"As a matter of fact, I'm feeling a bit of dread. I suspect we are at a very dangerous point."

"Why?"

"Intuition."

"Do mathematicians believe in intuition?"

"Absolutely. Very important, intuition. Actually, I was thinking of fractals," Malcolm said. "You know about fractals?"

Grant shook his head. "Not really, no."

"Fractals are a kind of geometry, associated with a man named Mandelbrot. Unlike ordinary Euclidean geometry that everybody learns in school-squares and cubes and spheres-fractal geometry appears to describe real objects in the natural world. Mountains and clouds are fractal shapes. So fractals are probably related to reality. Somehow.

"Well, Mandelbrot found a remarkable thing with his geometric tools. He found that things looked almost identical at different scales."

"At different scales?" Grant said.

"For example," Malcolm said, "a big mountain, seen from far away, has a certain rugged mountain shape. If you get closer, and examine a small peak of the big mountain, it will have the same mountain shape. In fact, you can go all the way down the scale to a tiny speck of rock, seen under a microscope-it will have the same basic fractal shape as the big mountain."

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